Perth Bears: An $85M government investment for a projected $200M return
The Perth Bears haven’t played a game, but the business case is already doing the talking
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Just a quick note to say thank you for your patience over the past few weeks — newsletters took a short break because my wife and I welcomed a baby boy (Hudson) into the world on April 22.
I’m excited to say the newsletter is back starting today! That said, as I find my feet as a new dad, the email frequency might vary slightly over the short term so keep a look out for emails landing in your inbox’s outside of the regular Thursday morning time slot.
Looking ahead, there’s plenty to look forward to - over the coming weeks, a suite of subject matter experts will feature as guest writers (starting today) to share insights and perspectives. Can’t wait to share their contributions with you.
Interested in becoming one of them? Send me a DM here.
Thanks again for reading and subscribing to Notice, it means a lot.
Cheers,
Matt
(Writer/Founder)
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Guest Writer: Dr Sarah Wymer
Notice is welcoming back one of its favourite subject matter experts - Dr Sarah Wymer, Senior Lecturer at Auckland University of Technology.
Sarah holds a PhD in Sport Management, specialising in sport marketing, digital media, and digital broadcasting, with 15+ years of experience across Australia, New Zealand, and the US.
A die-hard NRL fan and Warriors supporter since 1995, she integrates rugby league into her research and teaching - winning the Griffith University VC Excellence Award in 2024 for her work with the Gold Coast Titans.
Today, she breaks down why the Perth Bears are more than just the NRL’s 18th team. Enjoy the read!
An $85M government investment for a projected $200M return - all riding on Australia’s newest professional team
The Perth Bears haven’t played a game, but the business case is already doing the talking. Here is what is worth noticing:
1. A government-backed growth model
Early reports suggested WA Premier Roger Cook was willing to invest more than $300 million to secure a team, a figure that sparked debate from both Treasury and the media. The final deal reflects a more measured approach: strategic investment with tight conditions, local control, and a clear public return.
The confirmed investment includes:
$65.6M direct WA Government investment over seven years
$25M to establish the club
$35M into grassroots and junior development
$5.6M into marketing and tourism
$20M (separately funded) for a new high-performance centre in Malaga, shared with the Western Force
There’s no licence fee in the final WA deal, and that’s significant.
The NRL was reportedly seeking around $20 million for market entry. The earlier bid from the Cash Converters, Deputy Chairman, Peter Cumins-led consortium offered none, arguing that start-up costs in an AFL-dominated state made such a payment commercially unviable. The NRL saw it differently. The offer was viewed as a lowball, especially given the long-term value of a Perth franchise. The bid also fell short on governance, local alignment, and sustainability - key criteria for expansion.
Still, waiving the fee isn’t unprecedented. The Dolphins didn’t pay one when they joined in 2023, but they entered with 75 years of history, $100 million in real estate, and a fully operational system. Perth is a build-from-scratch proposition. For comparison, the newly confirmed PNG franchise will enter in 2028 with a $60 million licence fee, although this is being funded directly by the Australian Government as part of a broader $600 million regional investment.
The Perth model makes a different kind of play: no upfront fee, but firm local oversight, state-backed funding, and tight conditions embedded from day one. The club will begin under NRL control, transitioning to full member ownership after five years, with a local Chair and three WA-based directors ensuring WA’s voice is embedded in governance from the outset.
The return on investment? That depends on who you ask
The ARLC's internal modelling estimated $52M per year in economic benefit, driven by visitor spend, broadcast value, and promotional uplift.
WA Treasury commissioned independent modelling from ACIL Allen, which delivered a more conservative but still substantial estimate:
$28M per year in annual economic uplift
$168M in total return across seven years
A 2.56:1 ROI for WA taxpayers
ACIL Allen’s figures account for job creation, event-driven tourism, and local economic activity once the club is operational. Although less bullish than the NRL’s projections, they still validate the strategic logic behind the investment.
Not everyone is convinced.
The West Australian (owned by Seven West Media - we’ll come back to them) ran a now-infamous front page calling it “The bad news Bears,” accusing Premier Cook of “forcing WA taxpayers to pay Sydney NRL rejects $65M to play in Perth.” But for others, broadcasters, policymakers, and fans, the investment signals long-term ambition and a genuine commitment to growing the game.
As Premier Cook put it:
“Any deal had to deliver value for WA taxpayers… and it does. This is a great day for sports fans and a great day for the WA economy.”
2. A dual-city model delivering both heritage and market growth
The Perth Bears represent something rare in Australian sport: a brand resurrection in a completely new market, not a relocation, not a merger, but a legacy play with fresh commercial upside.
They won’t be starting from scratch.
The North Sydney Bears, a foundation club cut from the competition in 1999, still claim around 200,000 east coast supporters: legacy fans who’ve waited more than two decades for a return to the national stage. Their colours (red and black), history, and presence have remained visible through NSW Cup participation, junior development, and merchandising.
Now, that heritage is formally linked to Perth. One NRL game a year will still be played at North Sydney Oval, and the North Sydney Bears will remain as a feeder club in the NSW Cup, but the club’s future is firmly in WA.
This dual-city model (legacy in the east, growth in the west) offers something rare: a ready-made identity with room to evolve.
While the original bid pitched the Western Bears, the NRL insisted on Perth Bears, a deliberate move toward clear, place-based branding. It’s a noticeable departure from the approach taken with the Dolphins, who entered the competition in 2023 without a geographic tag. That strategy was meant to broaden market appeal across South-East Queensland but drew criticism for lacking a sense of place. With Perth, the NRL has leaned the other way: grounding the club firmly in location, politics, and identity. It reflects a wider shift in how expansion teams are positioned, not just as broadcast assets, but as market anchors with local roots and public visibility. It’s also a break from precedent…
Most defunct clubs stay defunct, or their IP sits idle.
Think Fitzroy in the AFL or the dormant New Zealand Knights in football. When clubs relocate, they usually shed their identity entirely (South Melbourne became the Sydney Swans; the Brisbane Bears folded into the Lions). The Bears have even tried merging before (the Northern Eagles joint venture with Manly in the early 2000s), but it quickly fell apart. This is something different.
The logo won’t be identical, but the club will retain North Sydney’s traditional red and black. As Billy Moore put it, “A bear’s a bear.” In his words, it’s not a takeover. It’s a marriage. The identity evolves, but the DNA is intact. Still, the marketing challenge is real: how do you build something fresh in WA while honouring a fanbase that sees this as their club’s long-overdue return? The Perth Bears brand will need to strike a careful balance, carrying the legacy without being constrained by it.
3. A calculated broadcast play in contested territory
WA is an AFL fortress. Seven West Media controls the dominant newspaper, TV network, and AFL rights. But the NRL’s 2027 entry shifts the media equation, giving Nine prime-time content in a fresh market and time zone just as the league’s $2 billion broadcast deal comes up for renegotiation.
The Perth Bears bring scheduling power, west coast relevance, and a valuable time slot for international streamers.
They’re part of a wider broadcast strategy: with PNG incoming, Vegas now annual, and a 20th team still on the horizon, the NRL is building a portfolio designed for global reach, political leverage, and media diversity.
The NRL’s current free-to-air deal with Nine and subscription partnership with Foxtel/Kayo runs until the end of 2027, with a record media rights value reportedly exceeding $400 million annually. But the next rights deal is shaping up to be something very different. The AFL’s $4.5 billion deal set a benchmark. Now, the NRL has momentum, expansion, and viewership spikes on its side.
Streaming giants are circling.
Amazon, Disney, Paramount and Netflix have all been linked to future Australian sports rights. DAZN’s $3.4 billion acquisition (now finalised) adds a major twist: one of the world’s biggest sports streamers now controls Australia’s dominant pay TV platforms. V’landys has declared the next deal will break records, as the NRL chases a global-facing footprint with flexible, multi-platform delivery.
Tensions are already simmering beneath the surface. Seven West Media, owner of The West Australian and the AFL’s dominant broadcast partner, didn’t exactly welcome the Bears. Their front page jab at the WA Government was seen by many as protectionist, a reaction from a media powerhouse defending its patch. That coverage hasn’t gone unnoticed.
Seven has previously been floated as a potential NRL broadcast bidder.
But it’s an awkward position, criticising the league’s westward expansion while reportedly eyeing a slice of its next deal. As some in the industry have noted, that kind of editorial stance could complicate negotiations when the rights go up for sale.
Looking ahead...
The Bears are just one part of the NRL’s wider expansion play:
For the first time in decades, the NRL can legitimately claim national (and international) reach, with a presence in every major market, four time zones for broadcast leverage, and a portfolio designed for global growth.
Western Australia has been here before.
The Western Reds entered the premiership in 1995 and were gone by the end of 1997, a casualty of the Super League war. This time, the foundations are stronger. The model is clearer. And the ambition is bigger.
The NRL itself is in a stronger position, too.
After delivering successive operating surpluses and growing revenues post-COVID, the league has begun future-proofing its operations, including a $300 million investment in property to reduce reliance on broadcast deals alone.
Just like with the Dolphins’ 2023 entry, this isn’t just about adding a team, it’s about establishing a system.
When the Dolphins were granted a licence, it came with conditions: clear community commitments, development pathways, and investment in the region. The Perth Bears are no different. They can’t sign players until November 2025 and won’t take the field until 2027, but the build starts now. WA already has 6,000 junior players and 240 schools running league programs. The NRL wants to double both in the short term, embedding community development into the licence from day one.
The Bears are in. The numbers add up. But now comes the hard part - proving the strategy delivers more than just headlines.
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