Can the NRL’s Vegas Gamble Pay Off?
The NRL is rolling the dice in Vegas for a second straight year, doubling down on its US expansion strategy. Is this just an expensive marketing play, or the foundation for something bigger?
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New guest-writing series
Notice is excited to launch a new series featuring top subject matter experts from across the sports industry. To kick things off, we’d like to introduce:
Sarah Wymer, Senior Lecturer at Auckland University of Technology
Sarah holds a PhD in Sport Management, specialising in sport marketing, digital media, and digital broadcasting, with 15+ years of experience across Australia, New Zealand, and the US. A die-hard NRL fan and Warriors supporter since 1995, she integrates rugby league into her research and teaching - winning the Griffith University VC Excellence Award in 2024 for her work with the Gold Coast Titans.
Today she breaks down the NRL’s venture into Las Vegas - Enjoy the read!
The NRL is rolling the dice in Vegas for a second straight year, doubling down on its US expansion strategy
Is this just an expensive marketing play, or the foundation for something bigger?
Rugby league is an outlier in the US sports landscape, but on paper, the NRL has a product that should appeal to American fans. It’s fast, physical, and highly entertaining.
The challenge isn’t just grabbing attention, it’s converting casual curiosity into long-term fandom.
So, how do we measure whether this is more than just a one-off spectacle?
One key indicator is ticket sales and whether the audience expands beyond Australian expats and travelling fans.
2024: 23,000 tickets were sold in the US, but many went to Australian expats or tourists
2025: 35,000 tickets have already been sold (estimated 50,000 total), and 25% of buyers are US-based across all 50 states - The strongest growth markets are California (20%), Nevada (12%), Texas, Florida, and New York
This suggests that interest is slowly moving beyond just Australian tourists, which is a crucial step toward long-term sustainability.
📊 Key Metric: Will the share of US-based ticket buyers continue to grow beyond 2025?
Another major test is whether the NRL can turn this event into a valuable media property in the US.
In 2024, all games were stuck behind a cable paywall, limiting accessibility. In 2025, the first-ever NRL game on free-to-air US television (Raiders vs. Warriors) will air live on FOX to 125 million households, alongside other games on Fox Sports 1 and FOX Soccer Plus. The Jillaroos’ Test match has been placed in prime time (7:15pm PST), a major win for women’s rugby league visibility in the US.
A shift to free-to-air signals that FOX sees value in rugby league’s expansion - but networks will only continue backing it if the audience follows. Without strong viewership, long-term investment from US broadcasters and sponsors will be hard to justify.
📊 Key Metric: Will free-to-air coverage significantly boost US viewership?
While selling out a weekend in Vegas is a great start, the real test lies in building something sustainable. Can the NRL’s commercial and digital strategies transform this into a long-term investment or if it will remain a standalone event working to gain traction in the US market?
The NRL’s US push is gaining momentum - bigger crowds, free-to-air coverage, and growing buzz
The 2024 event reportedly cost $15m, raising concerns about financial sustainability. Fiji Airways signed on as the presenting sponsor, marking its first major rugby league investment outside the Pacific. Gambling played a major role in commercialisation, with three of four teams featuring betting sponsors. While wagering partnerships were a natural fit for Vegas, the event also presents an opportunity to diversify sponsorship and attract new global brands.
This year, the NRL expects to break even or even turn a profit - a major turnaround from 2024. Including the NZ Warriors strengthens connections with growing Pasifika communities in the US, while JD Sports’ two year presenting partnership signals broader commercial appeal. The addition of UK Super League teams, Wigan & Warrington, further expands the event’s global footprint, reinforcing rugby league’s commercial international appeal
For expansion to continue, the NRL must build on this momentum by securing long-term commercial partners aligning with its evolving audience. Broadening its sponsorship base and international reach will be key for sustained success.
📊 Key Metric: Can the event generate sustained interest from global brands, signalling long-term commercial appeal and expansion potential in new markets?
In 2024, NRL.com and the NRL App saw a 43% rise in unique users, with US traffic surging 185% and Canadian traffic up 95%. Event related content generated 2.78m engagements, but the $US169 annual subscription fee for Watch NRL was widely criticised as a barrier for new fans.
In 2025, the Jillaroos aim to build on last year’s viral success of the men’s games, which captivated US audiences with reaction videos showcasing rugby league’s physicality (big hits, no pads). They hope for a similar impact in the women’s game. Meanwhile, the NRL are hopeful for $15M–$25M in revenue from US Watch NRL subscriptions, reinforcing the importance of digital engagement in its US expansion strategy.
Engagement spikes around the event are promising, but the real test is keeping the momentum going beyond March. If the NRL can build on this interest, Vegas could serve as a strong foundation for sustained growth in this market.
📊 Key Metric: Can the NRL website & app sustain at least a 50% increase in US users beyond March?
With stronger ticket sales, improved TV exposure, and growing commercial partnerships, the NRL is building momentum.But embedding itself in the broader US sports landscape remains the real challenge…
To embed itself in the broader US sports landscape, its leveraging cross-promotion with other sports and player development pathways
The US is home to some of the world’s biggest sports and most passionate fans. Since rugby league is still relatively unknown in this market, the challenge isn’t just attracting attention, it’s educating new audiences and driving long-term engagement. With a limited budget compared to major US sports, the NRL is taking a strategic approach, leveraging cross-promotion and earned media to grow its footprint.
Aaron Woods has led the NRL’s biggest cross promotion moments, appearing on WWE Raw and at NASCAR’s Daytona 500. WWE’s Netflix debut reached 4.9m viewers, putting rugby league in front of a massive US audience, while his NASCAR appearance introduced the NRL to drivers, celebrities, and fans.
The NRL has also built direct links with US athletes, such as NBA’s Josh Green and NFL rookie Puka Nacua, while the Cronulla Sharks engaged with former NFL star Todd Gurley. Meanwhile, the Panthers and Raiders connected with the NHL’s Vegas Golden Knights, and the Sharks partnered with the LA Kings - embedding rugby league into the US sports landscape.
Then there’s Canberra’s bold play for earned media…
The Raiders commissioned a $10k Viking horn for their Vegas debut, inviting UFC CEO Dana White and NFL legend’s Tom Brady & Rob Gronkowski to take part in the ceremonial first blow - amplifying one of the NRL’s most unique game day traditions.
📊 Key Metric: Does engagement with US sports figures drive increased social media interactions & brand recognition?
The NRL combine is back in 2025, offering 50 US athletes a pathway into the NRL/NRLW. Last year’s event generated excitement & while transitioning from the combine to professional opportunities takes time, ongoing engagement is key. Keeping fans connected with these athletes will reinforce long-term development pathways.
📊 Key Metric: How many combine athletes secure contracts or maintain development pathways beyond Vegas?
The Vegas Nines tournament is another key initiative, featuring teams from the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. The event includes NRL coaching clinics and development opportunities, helping to foster grassroots growth beyond marquee events. This year, it will also be live-streamed on YouTube, expanding its reach to a global audience and giving new fans a chance to experience rugby league firsthand.
📊 Key Metric: Do participation rates in US-based programs/junior pathways grow following the Nines?
The biggest question remains…
In 2024, NRL revenue grew by $43.7M, reaching a record $744.9M - proof the league knows what it’s doing. The Vegas event has generated significant buzz in both the US and back home, providing a strong start to the season. But follow-through is key. Will this momentum translate into lasting opportunities?
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